WAWRINKA value to give Nadal a rest test in Australian Open final

Rafa Nadal is the 21/1000 (YOU WIN) favourite for the Australian Open with the final scheduled to get underway 08.30 on Sunday morning (BBC 2/EUROSPORT).

Stanislas Wawrinka is the man that the Spaniard will meet in the final and he is 19/4 (sportingbet) to life the trophy in his first ever Grand Slam final appearance. The Swiss player has had an excellent tournament seeing off Tomas Berdych in four sets in the last four and ahead of that defeating Novak Djokovic in the quarters in a five set thriller.

Nadal booked his place in the final with a victory over his old foe Roger Federer in an impressive straight sets victory and the Spaniard has dropped just one set en-route to the final (which came in his quarter-final against Grigor Dimitrov). Rafa is an old hand at the big occasion with this being his 19th Grand Slam final and he has a 13-5 record in these games.

I think a lot of people will point to the head-to-head record which favours Nadal as the Spaniard leads 12-0 and has not dropped a set against the Swiss player. You can get Nadal at 23/20 (YOU WIN) to win in straight sets. It is 14/5 (sportingbet/WINNER) that the Spaniard wins 3-1 while it is 7/1 (SKYBET/paddy Power) that Nadal edges the five setter. Wawrinka though has shown improved performances in recent meetings between the pair and his 2-0 loss to Nadal at the end of season ATP Tour finals were both on tiebreakers. The Swiss player is 13/1 (888 SPORT/unibet) to win in straight sets or 57/4 (YOU WIN) for a 3-2 victory while the shock straight sets victory for Wawrinka can be backed at 18/1 (BETVICTOR).

The total sets market expects this to be a quick game also and you can get just evens (BETVICTOR) that the game just has three total sets. SPREADEX are the leaders on this having four sets and you can get 2/1 while a five set thriller is 4/1 (BWIN/betway).

Wawrinka has one key advantage to his name, he will be the fresher player. Firstly because he has had an extra day to rest then Nadal, secondly because he had a shortened game in the opening round which was followed by a walkover in round three. I think the Swiss player is being under-estimated here and odds of 19/4 are generous. That being said I suppose the lack of final experience is a slight concern so instead I will take the 11/5 (BWIN) on him to win more than one set and the 8/11 (GENERAL) that he wins at least one set.

Another bet I would recommend is taking the opening set to go to a tiebreaker at 7/2 (CORAL). I do not think either player will want to give away too much in the first set. Throw in the fact that the last meeting between the pair saw both sets going to tiebreakers and this looks a decent price.

Finally a quick word on a special offer paddy Power are running that is if your player wins the first set but loses the match they will refund your stake. The Irish firm are offering 1/6 Nadala and 9/2 a Wawrinka victory.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Wawrinka to win at least one set, 8/11 (GENERAL)
SILVER: Warinka to win more than one set, 11/5 (BWIN)
BRONZE: Opening set to go to a tiebreaker, 7/2 (CORAL)

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25/01/2014     © Frixo 2026