Portugal overpriced to end Spain`s reign

To back Spain to qualify for the Euro 2012 final requires punters to overlook the fact that Portugal beat - no, make that thrashed - its neighbour when the teams met last.

No-one - not even the most one-eyed Portuguese supporter - will dispute that the Spaniards merit favouritism for the tie but there are degrees of favouritism and, based on the recent head-to-head form between the sides, there is no way that the world and European champions should be odds on to eliminate their local rivals at the end of 90 minutes.

The key to successful punting is to bet when the odds are in your favour. Win, lose or draw, Portugal is overpriced at about 2-1 to knock out Spain and qualify for its second European Championship final since the turn of the century.

The Portuguese humiliated the Spaniards in Lisbon 19 months ago, running out 4-0 winners and condemning their neighbours to their biggest defeat since 1963, when they lost 2-6 to Scotland. The visitors started with 10 of the 11 men who kicked off their 2010 World Cup final victory over the Dutch and the hosts did three-quarters of the damage after Cristiano Ronaldo was substituted at half time.

Basically, Spain had no excuses. Portugal played Vincente Del Bosque`s team off the park in what was anything but a run-of-the-mill international friendly. It meant a lot to both sides and the form line looks well worth following.

However, it would be foolish to expect a repeat of November 2010`s one-sided scoreline. Tactically, the Spaniards are likely to dominate possession on neutral territory in the Ukrainian city of Donetsk, with Portugal launching fast, counter attacks through the dazzling runs of Dani and Ronaldo once it steals the ball off Xavi and friends.

The 2010 World Cup meeting of Spain and Portugal produced only one goal - David Villa scored just after the hour mark of the Cape Town clash - and it would be no surprise if the Euro 2012 showdown was relatively low scoring as well.

Unfortunately, bookmakers have latched on to that distinct possibility with their over/under 2.5 goals lines. The generally available odds are about 13-8 over and 1-2 under.

Stick with backing the Portuguese to reach the final, where they will meet either the Germans or the Italians.

Germany is the hottest semi-final favourite, albeit only just, even though never has it beaten Italy in a competitive match. The European powerhouses have met seven times before and the Germans are still waiting to savour their first win.

England`s team may be out of Euro 2012 but its referee, Howard Webb, is odds on in the latest betting on the man who will control the final. Webb, of course, was the man in the middle when the Spaniards won the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. He showed 14 yellow cards in the decider, including two to one player - Netherlands defender John Heitinga.

UEFA will announce who will referee the final, scheduled for Sunday 1 July in Kyiv, once the semi-finals are out of the way. Webb is available at about 5-6 to get the gig.

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26/06/2012     © Frixo 2026