Back the underdogs to keep things close in Sunday football finals

It is no shock that Germany will be one of the sides lining up at the Friends Arena for the final of the European Women’s Championship. This is a tournament dominated in the past by Germany with the game Sunday marking their eighth final appearance (one as West Germany) and their sixth in a row. For those (like us) who backed Germany at the start of the tournament it has not been an easy ride to the final. They stumbled to second in the opening round after suffering their first defeat in 20 years at this event in the group stages. In the knockout rounds they laboured to a 1-0 victory over Italy before seeing off Sweden by the same scoreline in a game in which they were dominated.

Norway are their opponents and the only unbeaten side left in the tournament. After the group stages we tipped them up at 18/1 and we though the easy part was done when they cruised past Spain in the quarters while favourites France were eliminated by Denmark. The Danes though proved tricky last four opponents netting late in regular time to send the game to penalties. Norway finally emerged victorious from the spot kicks and booked another final with Germany a side they beat in the group stages.

These two sides have met in the final three times previously (05, 91, 89) and on each year it has been Germany who emerged victorious. It is 3/10 (betway) that Germany once more lift the trophy while Norway are 11/4 (paddy Power).

In terms of 90 minute match betting you can get Germany 3/5 (188 BET/betway) for victory, the draw is 16./5 (william hill) and a Norway victory is 5/1 (bet365/BETVICTOR/BWIN).

I think the way to play this game is to go against goals as just one of the five Germany games has seen more than one goal while three of the five Norway games have featured just one goal and the other two just two goals. Five of the eight meetings between them have featured no more than one goal including the one in the group stages so take the 5/6 (paddy Power) that the game has under 2.5 goals and 23/10 (GENERAL) that the game has under 1.5 goals.

Later that evening (9pmBST) the CONCACAF Gold Cup final takes place and for the first time in four tournaments it will not be between the USA and Mexico. The USA will be there (as highlighted here pre-tournament at 11/8) and their opponents will be Panama (as tipped here at 5/2 before the knockout stages). The USA are now as short as 2/7 (SKYBET) to lift the trophy for the fifth time while Panama are 15/4 (BWIN) to lift the trophy for the first time and become only the fourth side to do so.

The USA have lost just one of the last 12 against Panama and they can be backed at 1/2 (paddy power/CORAL/william hill) to win in 90 minutes while the draw which was the result when these sides met in the 2005 final is available at 10/3 (bet365/william hill/SPREADEX).

I think Panama are being overlooked here as they have given the US good games in recent meetings including beating them in 2011. The pressure is off Panama and on the host side. Panama merit consideration at 15/2 (bet365) to win outright though better will be to take them on the Asian Handicap at 17/20 (BETVICTOR/188 BET). This gives them a 1.25 start which pays full as a win or a draw and half if they lose by just one goal.

BEST OF THE BETS

GOLD: Panama on the Asian Handicap v USA, +1.25, 17/20 (BETVICTOR/188 BET)
SILVER: Under 2.5 goals in Germany v Norway, 5/6 (paddy power)
BRONZE: Under 1.5 goals in Germany v Norway, 23/10 (GENERAL)

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26/07/2013     © Frixo 2026