Can Anyone Stop Rafa From Making Another French-Open Semi-Final?

Rafael Nadal is bidding to do something that no-one else has ever achieved at this year’s French Open, and win a Grand Slam title for the ninth time. Nadal is bidding to extend his own record which was set last year, with the most titles at any other Grand Slam the seven Wimbledon titles won by both his contemporary Roger Federer and Pete Sampras.

Should he manage to pull this off, Nadal’s achievement would be absolutely phenomenal, given that he has only played in the French Open ten times. Truly, Nadal’s play on clay must be the greatest tennis we have ever seen on any surface certainly in statistical terms there is no argument against this whatsoever. Personally, I wouldn’t bet against Nadal making it double figures at Roland Garros at some point, despite the fact that his knees are creaking a bit nowadays, and there are question marks regarding how long he will play on for.

So how will Nadal’s French Open go this year? Are there any banana skins in his path ahead of another Grand Slam semi-final? This may seem like almost a facile question after all, what are the chances of Nadal going out before the semis of the French? But it is worth remembering that the only year Nadal has lost at Roland Garros, he went out in the fourth-round to Robin Soderling. Could another such upset occur this year?

Well, the first thing to say is that Nadal has been extremely lucky with the draw this year. Seeds have been dropping like flies in his section of the draw, and his third and fourth-round matches are hardly likely to be particularly challenging. Nadal will play the journeyman Leonardo Mayer in the third-round, a player who has never made it into the last sixteen of any Grand Slam. For Mayer to beat Nadal would represent arguably the biggest upset in Grand Slam history, so don’t waste a penny betting on anything other than a straight set Nadal victory.

Then in the fourth-round, Djokovic will play either the American Jack Sock or compatriot Dušan Lajović. Sock has never been beyond the third-round of a Slam in his young career, and this represents a good effort in itself, given that he grew up on the hard courts of the USA. And Lajović had never even been in a Grand Slam until this year. So there really shouldn’t be too much to trouble Nadal in the fourth-round either.

His first test could be in the quarter-finals stage, where Nadal might meet any one of a number of considerably more challenging players. The player he may least want to play is Ivo Karlovic the big server is always a tough opponent for anyone on any surface, and holds the world record for the most aces in a clay court match.

But a more likely opponent is David Ferrer, last year’s finalist. This would represent a pretty tough clay court workout for Nadal given that Ferrer beat him recently. But it’s impossible to bet against the world number 1 over five sets, and I fully expect him to make yet another Grand Slam semi-final.

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30/05/2014     © Frixo 2026